By Gary Hartley

How to bring mathematical theory to bear on agricultural pests

There need to be better links between theory and practice if mathematical modelling work is going to bring the fullest possible benefits to integrated pest management.

That’s according to leading academics, who say that modelling has proved valuable in conservation, fisheries and disease management, and could potentially have an equal impact in underlining the value of using biological controls as part of sustainable pest control programmes on farms.

In an editorial in the journal Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, the scientists said that this potential has yet to be realised, as work has tended to limited to predator-prey population models, and even then, not often been used in applied field research.

“The rich tradition of mathematical models inspired by pests and natural enemies shows that biocontrol has found its way into theoretical population biology decades ago,” they wrote. “It is high time that the reverse path is shaped into a highway, to do so requires the adoption and effective application of theoretical insights by end users and stakeholders who drive the use of biocontrol measures.”

Open field focus needed

Another issue affecting the application of proven models across the arable landscape is the fact that far more theoretical work has focused on greenhouses, as opposed to open field systems, they continued. This has limited the extent to which they can be used to assess the economic implications of using biocontrols for farmers.

The authors highlighted new studies addressing knowledge gaps in open fields, including one by Swedish scientists the effects of climate change on major predators of aphids, and another on the long-term effects of different management approaches in an intensively-cropped system.

They also underlined a need for follow-ups in the field to assess the impact of models and quantify the effects of the introduction of biocontrols, which they described as “sorely lacking.”

“This would not only provide a useful indicator for the end user but also allow researchers to build long term, useable data sets that can be used to improve their models. In turn, additional discussions can be had with stakeholders regarding improved/adjusted models, potentially benefiting the stakeholder in the long term,” they added.

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